Shifting of Crude Oil pain

In early October this year the emerging economies predominantly India was worried about crude
increasing rapidly on its price. Many of analyst expectations that it will not go beyond $63 went wrong, it moved past $80 and there were pessimists in the forefront talking that it will soon cross $100 and will bring big challenges for India on its CAD, the government on its elections, inflation etc. Oil going up continuously even defying its own weakness on technical made many who thought that pain of oil price to the world is behind us were also made to believe that it will have some more damage done to the growth of developing economies.

For the Oil producing countries, there seemed that they were the lords of the world, dictating terms
on price front threatening of production cuts to jack up price. At times it felt like they were enjoying
the pain that the emerging world was undergoing.

Within 40 days the story turned upside down. On 5th October, oil was at $84, it is overvalued on the
charts. On 21st November, it was $63, going straight to undervalued zone. Now the talks of the global media also have changed. So far, it was a concern that the emerging world is at pain. Now, thoughts of global slowdown has come.

Mercy thoughts are flowing in support of the oil producers. Saudi wants price to be above $73, to meet its budget plans. Russia says $70 is ok for us and we cannot stop our companies from producing as it will bring pressure to their capital. US says even $68 is ok for them.

Emerging countries are in party mood. In India, pressure on the Government to bring down taxes on
oil when price kept moving higher has now brought double benefits to the users. Oil price is down
and along with that lower taxes, it is big savings for the consumers and in a election year, there will
be no increase of taxes so, it is time now to enjoy lower pump prices.

So much in just 2 months. What took more than a year for the bulls to move up oil prices only took
40 days for the bears to damage. This is why it is said that, Bulls climb by the stairs and Bears jump
out of window.

In a couple of years from now the importance to Crude Oil as a product will be history. For immediate periods, Crude will try to move up in price, while it will find resistance on every upside rally and bears will bring prices down. At least 2 such events of lower price penetration will be there before we have any significant upward movement in prices of Oil.

FM’s thoughts on Oil & Loan Waiver

Jaitley’s talk at the ET awards, “Users should pay for oil… else fiscal deficit will rise and add to the current account deficit. It will push up inflation, weaken rupee. Tax on fuel prices should come down not by creating fiscal deficit, but through an increase in the non-oil tax to GDP ratio, which is on the rise since last few years. We must create a sense of maturity among people” Very nice thought, if we contribute by way of higher compliance, it will help in getting other benefits.

It felt like, we have only been asking without contributing. When we talk about this to people, they get agitated about paying taxes. It is because, for generations we have been on the receiving end.

Want farm loan waiver, how can that happen? Vice president Venkaiah Naidu said, “Loan waiver can happen only if there is a deposit waiver’. We did not want FRDI to come because we stated poor man’s money in the banks should not get used for the bank’s non-competence. All the deposit holders should be given highest safety on their investments. At the same time banks should waive off loans. This can happen only from the profits that banks make.

And unfortunately our banks don’t have that edge too, because of people running the banks who don’t have big vision.

Happened to hear a banker say that, “De-Mon was good and GST was good, while it was wrongly timed and not executed well. Government should have planned well to avoid the problems that it came across in implementing both these great reforms.”

We are the world’s biggest democracy having diversity of Africa to Europe in our mindset. When it comes to paying taxes we are like Africa, the most corrupt. There could not have been an opportunity to learn from some others mistake before bringing these two reforms. We should only learn from our own experiences. That is how it can be…..

There is an urgent need to move out of the comfort zone of protectionist mindset to accept reality & face the world as it is. It will strengthen us as a country and prepare us to have more luxuries.

 

Observations @ Morning Star

I had been to the Morningstar Investor Conference in Mumbai, had the opportunity to hear thoughts of some prominent names in the industry, fund managers, Economists alike. Thoughts that were shared by economists were too negative, at a time when the markets are down with lots of pain in the minds of investors, these negative thoughts did not feel like it is right.

Maybe these people do not want to take responsibility for their views if what they say goes to be wrong and are always taking sides of what is the prevailing situation. Thoughts that our

  • Crude oil buying problem is increasing
  • Trade deficit is equivalent to those in the 90’s
  • The picture now is more bad that what it is experienced.
  • India is spending more on Coal, which is a surprise.
  • We are importing more electronics.

Why should they voice concern now and have not done earlier when markets were going up? If all these were true, it cannot happen all of a sudden in a day or two. People who are tracking these should have known them early and should have actually informed people to take right decisions. Instead all that these so called big names including media are doing is, to come after the event and support the situation.

I have been holding position in Jubilant Foodworks, the owners of Domino’s Pizza. Till last quarter for 5 quarters this company had good growth on its sales and profits. In the September 18 quarter growth has slowed down & because of bonus announcement its earnings got dropped. After the results were announced, analysts are giving information about the challenges the company will face like.

  • Due to food aggregators, they will have labour problems.
  • Competition is eating into their business.
  • Increase in Fuel cost as well as other inputs is not getting passed on and will be a burden.

How come all these showed up the day results were announced? Now that the company is showing signs of slowdown, all these people are giving supporting thoughts to strengthen the actual condition.

And this brings more clarity that all the media as well as big names should not be believed or should just brush aside and we continue with our beliefs. The other day there was a thought shared in a video that big money is made in the markets only when there is more fear and blood bath in there. And when fear gets bread through media it becomes more pain and that is where right opportunities come.

In 2008 everything around us was talking negative, joblessness, crude oil at peak, businesses defaulting and media was only giving negative news. From there market went up 157%. Even now news papers are full of negative news.

  • Agriculture growth is underwhelming
  • Mid & Small cap in Bear hug.
  • 1 year sip’s in Red
  • Valuation still above average

All these means that, there is the next big opportunity just about to come. Only that, one needs to invest into quality stocks. Just because stocks are available at a discount, one should not pick up junk stocks

Stick to quality and the next rally will help you make handsome gains.

Own the businesses of products you consume

Investing into stocks for dividend income was one of the passive income sources. In similar manner own the businesses that produces the products that you consume in your daily routine. This actually brings confidence to be invested. For example – Say your grocery bill always has a couple of maggi packets in it. You regularly buy Good Day biscuits for your kids at home. You use Dove soap.

You know the reason why you are consuming these products and can relate to similar usage pattern among other users. So, it will bring confidence in you that this product is going to stay for long. In such a condition if you have a few shares of the companies that produce these products like Britannia for Good Day, Nestle for Maggi, Hindustan Lever for Dove soap.

For every purchase you make, you get a small portion of the money spent as your profits because you are a part owner of this company. And as you see more and more people in the stores consuming these products while you are doing your purchases, you really feel very proud that your business is growing.

Many such regular products of consumption which are available in the markets for users to own them. A few among the list would be TITAN, BATA, MARUTI, BAJAJ AUTO, ITC, DABUR, NESTLE, GLAXO etc.,

So the next time you buy a product that you have been consuming for a long time, turn the packet to find the company which is manufacturing it, find if the company has listed its stock. Along with spending on your consumption purchases, also spend some amount to buy a few shares of the company.

Believe me, after you have a good number of companies in your investment kitty, while you walk on a busy street, you will be trilled that you own many of those businesses. As you see people buying products of your company, your pocket is getting filled with money.

April 2018 – Indian Stock Market bounces back

After the correction in the markets that set in post the budget session following Global trade war, Crude Oil price increase and stress on financial assets due to expected interest rate hikes, markets had a sharp bounce back in April. SENSEX recovered more than 5% in April almost getting back most of the losses in Feb & March. Our portfolio has managed a growth of 10.20%, which was possible due to our strong portfolio of stocks. Investments into Specialty Chemicals, Metals, Electrodes, Graphite & Carbon Black helped us have the enormous edge of giving almost double the returns given by SENSEX to its investors. Private banks facing challenges with their CEO’s, Election year volatility is likely to bring more volatility into the markets. Markets are likely to touch lows once again before turning bullish. The next visit of SENSEX to 32500 levels will be a good opportunity to invest into the markets as it will be a base and give immediate gains.