10 Lakh Crores of Investor wealth lost after the Budget 2018. Really??

10 Lakh Crores of Investor wealth lost after the Budget 2018. Really??

After the 2018 budget, the rising stock market went into correction mode. This long-awaited correction was triggered by the budget proposal to re-introduce Long-Term Capital Gains tax.

Media frenzy created fear and confusion in the minds of retail investors, resulting in panic selling. In parallel, global events like the Russian elections and Saudi Aramco IPO, the world’s largest IPO, supported the fall. Now crude oil prices need to stay at high levels for both these events to sail through. This worry took the markets further down, so more sell-off is likely.

Now the media says 10 lakh crores of investor wealth is lost in 5 days. This fuels the fears of the already confused investors. Is it true that so much wealth was actually lost? If so, who made the gains?

In the stock markets, when there is a higher value on a company’s stocks or the index, it is true that the whole asset is valued at that price. If all the owners offer to sell at the highest price, there is zero possibility that everyone will get that price. As sell offers pour in, supply increases and price declines. Price decline continues till the supply slows down and demand increases. Then the price starts to move up again. If the sentiment becomes stronger and builds more confidence, then the market moves past the previous high leading to an even higher value for the total asset.

Wealth gets created because of the confidence people have in the company or the economy. Wealth gets eroded when many of them conclude that their expectations are met and begin to move out.

So, only if we sell and move out of the investment can we lock the high price. If a person is waiting without participating in selling and realizing the gains, it means his confidence level is high, and he wants to achieve an even higher price.

Just calling out the highest level reached, not taking the action to exit and saying wealth is lost when prices move down does not have a meaning. The reason why you did not sell was that your confidence in the company or economy continues to be strong. If it remains strong, be invested to exit at a higher price.

The other approach is flawed wherein you stay invested when the market is moving up and when prices decline due to selling by others, you get worried and take a decision to sell at the available price. At this stage complaining that you lost your wealth is not the right way to approach this asset.

If you are participating in the stock market with commitment and confidence, hold on till suitable conditions prevail. If the situation changes and shakes your confidence, then take a stand to move out either with available profits or even at a loss. Again, you need to understand the conditions and take action.

In reality, wealth is not lost. It was only a notional value. When a group of investors decides to move out, the prices drop bringing down the notional value. At all times we will have some set of investors wanting to exit for various reasons and that is market dynamics.

Be invested as long as your confidence in the stock or the market is intact. Exit when your goal is reached, or the conditions change, altering your view and confidence levels. Once we are investing with this clarity, ups and downs in the market will not disturb us or make us take a decision midway to exit.

So, when markets come down in value, no one loses any physical money, it is only the notional value that comes down. Stay invested with your confidence and objective and you will get rewarded adequately.

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Ramesh Sigamani

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