Defaults, defaults & defaults, what is happening to India

For the last few years, we have been going through continuous defaults by corporates in our country. More than 10 lakh crores of NPA’s & more can come. It can be agreed that there will be a few weeds in any stack, while not all of them or major part them are useless, right. Kingfisher went down, Jaypee group sank, Jet Airways is now blinking towards a collapse, Air India is in the ICU since long & now recently the IL&FS default.

Does this mean that, as a country we are a population which is not fit to do business? We are 20% of the world’s population and are most of them useless? It makes us think about the condition in a different manner. Was there something that is forcing these corporates to not perform or giving them room to think of cheating the system?

IL&FS is saying that the Government did not pay them on time, even though the amount that it has to receive from the government is only about 17% of the total default of 91K crores. Yet, these amounts if they had come on time, it could have helped save some losses in the form of interests.

In the KFA case, we had the FDI issue which did not allow funds to come in and support the airline. Later that was relaxed, after the air line collapsed. Our system was adamant to not change until we had one calamity. This change made Jet Airways to forge alliance with Ethihad, now it has gone nowhere. Here what will be the reason? GOK.

Most of the infra projects that are draining huge amount of capital in various forms like capital infused, serviced borrowings in the form of interest. Capital expenditure lying unused losing value are due approvals and clearances where the government is involved.

In most of the defaults, if we go deep to find the root, it is the Government that is responsible in one or other manner for the collapse. Next question – why is government not able to deliver & has been party in creating so much loss of wealth. Are they not accountable?

Non- competence, irresponsible people in the system who are running the departments is the reason. Why did our Public Sector Banks go into the condition where they are now, devastated? Very low responsibility of the people who managed these banks, more than work, job safety was the bigger priority for the employees. Even the top management did not question.

Compare private banks with PSB’s, in private if target is not met he or she is kicked out in 3 months. In Public, one need not do anything, come at his or her convenience, do some work if they have time after their multiple tea breaks and chit chats.

The other day there was a service tax scrutiny in one of my known sources business premise. The chief officer who came from the department team was comfortable ordering tea and snacks for his team, getting temperature in the room arranged for comfort. Other than this work he did not do anything. They had a plan of doing audit for 2 days, fortunately it got completed half way through the second day. The whole team packed off to their homes after having lunch. Half day’s salary for the team is to be paid by the citizens of India.

In the same manner one of my other friend had some work to be done from the corporation office. At 11.30 am there is only skeletal staff in the office on a week day. Only 2 women employees in the whole office, one is dozing off on her desk & the other is busy with her kid. When approached to submit the application requesting some rectification work, it was said to give it outside and outside there were only tables and chairs, no human being. All of them are either out to have tea or are in the rest room.

This is the way our government departments work and we should not be surprised if a couple of lakh crores are lost from our system. Until the system is flushed out of these non-productive resources our country will continue to have defaults. Many of the smart brains either gets sucked into the same group or gets lost of all their life time effort.

I don’t say that all the corporates who lost money were genuine hard workers, there can be crooks in them too.

Dividend as passive income

Dividend from investments into listed companies forms one of the passive income streams. Whenever this concept of dividend as income is talked, that too from shares, the immediate thought is that, it will be very less returns and the next one is, how to rely on a company for a longer period. Because every person who has a fairly good period of exposure to stock investing will know in their memory itself, many companies have vanished from their business.

Whereas, on the other side, there are people who are having dividend as a regular income stream. A couple of years back when the Tata Sons board had a thought of reducing dividends, there was big concern raised by elderly people who said that, they had commitments in their life based on the dividends and reducing it will impact their lifestyle.

What this shows is that, there is a possibility to have dividend as regular income which can take care of our livelihood expenses. In that case, how is it sustainable if a company gives ₹5 as dividend for a stock that is quoting ₹250. The dividend yield comes to only 2% of the investment.

Yes, most of the good, familiar and companies that have long track record of existence generally pay out about 2% of their prevailing value of the stock as dividend. While these are companies that are growing in their business consistently and that growth takes the stock price higher as time passes.

So, today if we buy a stock for dividend the return will be lesser, whereas holding on to that stock for a longer period increases the value of the stock as also its dividends. A ₹250 stock will become ₹2000 over a period and at the time the 2% dividend will work out to ₹40. So you will be getting ₹40 as income from your original investment of ₹250, which becomes attractive.

Only criteria here is to chose a stock that has been there in the market for a fairly long period and also continue to be in existence for an even longer period. Do we have businesses like that in our country?

Yes, there are many. Like ITC, BATA, TITAN, Hindustan Lever, Godrej, Bajaj Auto, Maruti to name a few. Look at these names, most of them or producing daily use products that you and I consume. When will we stop consuming and these companies can run out of business? For example, ITC has been there for more than a century now. In almost every corner of your city you will find Bata store, probably you will be using a Bata product too.

Investing in these kind of businesses will help get a good dividend income over a longer period and these investments will become legacies which you can leave for your children. If not to have all your income coming from dividends, one can look at having a portion of his or her income from dividends.

This is passive, because you are not required to put any kind of effort in making these investments work, people consume & growth these companies. So long the consumption continues, your investment grows and keeps giving you returns.

I did a working on ITC to find if it is viable. The stock price of ITC was about ₹850 in 2000. Over the last 18 years ITC has given many bonuses and splits in its stock price. If someone had bought 100 shares of ITC in 2000 by investing ₹85000. His dividend in 2001 was only ₹1000. It is just a little above 1%.

After all the splits and bonuses, today the 100 shares have grown to 4500 shares and the stock is priced at ₹300 today. The value of ₹85000 invested in 2000 is now ₹13.50 lakhs. The dividend that came for these shares in 2018 is ₹23500.

₹85000 investment in 2000 is now fetching 23500 per annum which is close to 30% of the investment & it will keep increasing.

If you have thoughts of having dividend as one of your sources of income in your retirement years, you can think of accumulating stocks like ITC to create a legacy. One more advantage is that, the feeling that you own a part of the countries economy. As you go across town in your older days, as you keep seeing brands across and people consuming, your mind will say, “I own a part of these businesses and every minute it is earning me income.”

What a feeling right?

 

A Fund Manager’s View On Market Trends

Meeting with Mr. Jayesh Gandhi, Senior Fund Manager, ABSL.

Recently, I had the opportunity to meet Mr. Jayesh Gandhi and talk about our favourite topic, “THE MARKETS”. Mr. Gandhi manages the Mid & Small-Cap funds of Aditya Birla Sunlife Mutual Fund, schemes of which have been consistent performers in the recent past.

This meeting gave me an opportunity to understand the fund manager’s view of the markets when there is a divergence between mid-cap and large-cap stocks. He follows the growth stock investing approach using a template which finds stocks that are growing in both their sales and profits.

Straight out I asked him about the underperformance of the mid-cap stocks in the recent past against the broad markets. His reasoning was that growth stocks tend to underperform when value picks give larger moves. Growth investing creates higher alpha when the markets get into a broad-based up move. When there is a correction they tend to also correct as much as the indices. The advantage here is that when staying invested in such schemes, over a period, the growth tends to out beat the benchmarks to a larger extent.

Presently the SENSEX and NIFTY have been reaching new highs while the mid and small cap space has lost considerable value. Investors are questioning the underperformance in their portfolios since they see that the Sensex is climbing higher. This divergence is due to a few stocks in the large-cap space garnering higher demand during the recent scheme re-categorization. Fund managers were forced to liquidate quality mid-cap stocks and had to add large-cap stocks to reduce exposure and meet SEBI norms.

In the large-cap space, there are no high-quality stocks which are an equal match to the mid-caps that are fundamentally strong with higher sales and profit growth. Yet, fund managers were forced to add the large-caps, creating demand for a small group of good picks, pushing these stocks further up.  A few mutual fund schemes that already held these large-caps in their portfolio are now outperforming the universe that made big gains in the 2017 rally. But, this divergence is only to stay for a short period.

Mr. Jayesh’s view on profit growth is that in our country the mid and small cap space is likely to be rise by 20 to 30% in the next 3 years. The PE multiples, presently at 25-26 levels,  will reach 14 and below 10 for the small-cap companies, thereby giving very high wealth creation possibility in the coming 3 years.

We had a good rally in the 2014-17 period and are likely to have a similar one for the next 3 years. We are going into an election year. By December we will have more clarity on the outcome of the elections and if it is positive, we should see a 40% growth in 2019-20 alone. And to be a part of this massive wealth creation and reap the benefits in full a person has to be invested now. All portfolio realignment as per SEBI categories is now over, and it will follow now to the next phase of aligning stocks that are the new leaders.

Most of the mutual fund schemes are holding a good amount of cash in their portfolios and these funds will be deployed in the next 2 to 3 months, in preparation for the next rally post elections. Next, we pondered – what if election results are not favourable?

Mr. Gandhi’s thought was that going into the election itself markets will rally about 10-15%. So if there is a correction due to unfavourable results, those already invested will only come back to present levels and not lose much. those who are in now will not lose much if there is an unfavourable condition as the correction if there is one, All the corrections that mid-caps should see is almost over and now the whole market will get aligned. There will be volatility but due to the whole market facing the same condition. Bigger as well as smaller stocks will have the same levels of downside. Whereas on the upside, there is a high potential for the smaller stocks to give higher returns. One is because they are at lows now and the other reason is that they will see higher levels of profit growth.

Oil is expected to touch $85 and probably from there it will see a fall. Exports will increase and with  support from corporate earnings from FY19 everything looks favourable.

For the investors, it is going to be a few more months of ups and downs and then launching off to the next big growth phase. Even our portfolio is doing the same, we have been adding more new stocks, reducing cash exposure and will be ready for the next rally before elections.

Add Insurance To Your SIP For Double Benefit!

Insurance is a high priority investment option in the minds of the Indian investor for decades now. In reality, it is not to be considered as an investment product at all. This option was made to look appealing by insurance companies as they provided a guarantee in repaying the principal along with some appreciation and also an insurance cover. Hence, in the unforeseen eventuality that the insurer is not alive, his dependents get a significant sum of money.

Pitfalls of Insurance as an Investment

Investors failed to realise that in return for their long-term commitment to pay premiums, what they got back was a pittance. When taking out a policy they only see the high numbers quoted and it looks like a rich reward. At the time of maturity when they receive the maturity amount, only then do they realize that the amount is not a significant growth of their monies. For creating this corpus, they would have shelled out all their lifetime earnings by paying premiums.

The tax saving advantage of the premium paid made insurance look like a much better option compared to other investment avenues available. I even heard the mother of a 2-year-old child asking her husband to take insurance for her child to meet future educational needs. It is not her fault because that is how her parents have saved.

Many are so very sincere and committed to paying the hefty premiums without realizing that, all their commitment is doing is making the insurance company rich and not them.

Increasing Awareness and Options

Off late there is increased awareness about the poor returns that insurance gives. Even with the tax savings that the product delivers, it is not worth an investment and people have been moving to term policies.

People shied away from term policies because they will not get any amount in return if they are alive after the policy term ends. They felt bad that they the premium paid goes waste as most of them are pretty confident that they will live beyond the policy term. Little do they realize that, however healthy you are, there are still some chances that things can go wrong. Life is not fully in our control.

A New Entrant – SIP Insurance

Now, there is a new option available for those who thought that term policy premium payment is going waste. Mutual Funds have begun to give insurance cover for SIP’s. It is called SIP Insurance, where, while you are investing through your SIP’s in mutual funds, you get an insurance cover without any extra cost. Moreover, all the money you pay for the SIP earns the highest returns. Insurance comes free.

Reliance Mutual Fund gives the highest returns in this segment with 120 times the SIP amount as the insurance cover in the 3rd year of the SIP investment. Coverage begins from the second month of the SIP with 20 times the SIP amount for the first year, 50 times for the second year and 120 times for the 3rd year.

The only condition is that the SIP should not be disturbed or redeemed till the age of 55 for the investor. One can start a SIP of 10K, in the 3rd year get 12 lakh insurance cover and then stop the SIP in that scheme and take it in another scheme. At present each fund has a maximum limit of 50 lakhs, so if a person takes a SIP in 3 or more fund houses, over a period, they can have a Rs. 2 crore insurance cover.

Regular term policies have their own challenges as one’s age catches up. Many investors have been denied insurance coverage because they have some existing disease or the premium gets increased because of the pre-existing disease. In SIP Insurance, these conditions don’t exist. Any individual who is investing in a SIP and has opted for insurance gets covered, immaterial of his age or disease status.

A big sigh of relief to those who are in the above condition. This SIP Insure product option takes away the challenges of investing in insurance and getting lower returns. Get in touch to know more about this new avenue for your life savings.

Who Should start an SIP?

SIP’s need not be very big, it can be as low as 500 per month and has no upper limit. This small contribution helps you feel the pulse of how the investment is growing and then bring confidence to add more.

Also this small amount helps people to bring savings habits with children and the needy. Thereby helping them become independent.

Additional features available for a SIP investor

  • You can set up SIP for a specific goal, once the goal is reached, stop the SIP and fulfil the goal. 
  • You can have alerts set, so as to get a message when the value is down to add more funds into the investment when the market is down.

Step up SIP’s are available which has a present additions to be made to the SIP contribution after completion of a stipulated period. Like you start with a 5000 per month, after completion of 1 year add additional 500 and increase the contribution to 5500 with similar increments after every passing year.

SIP insure is a new concept which helps you have insurance cover as you save. Funds provide upto 100 times the SIP amount as insurance cover for the investor. If you are doing a Rs.5000 SIP for a 3 year period, you get Rs.6 lakhs insurance cover and it stays active till you are invested in the fund. So, no contribution to insurance and all your investment having the highest growth.

Why you should start an SIP?

The first reason is that it brings a discipline to save. And the second, the most important reason is that, it keeps you off mood swings. For example – If you decide to invest an amount every month taking time to check the market and then do it. Most of the time, you obviously get held up in some task and miss the investment. If you have the time, you would want to wait for a better price. Or think about your previous investment which is now in the negative and postpone the current one.

SIP removes all these worries about timing. It helps you have the investment happen automatic & accumulate wealth.

Axis mutual Fund has coined a tag line for SIP, Sleep In Peace. It is really so peaceful was of accumulating wealth.

Other benefits of an SIP

Apart from helping you average your investment cost which we had discussed there is one very big advantage in the SIP investment. It is the eighth wonder of the world, the magic of compounding. As the investment period is longer, the profit you earn in the first year earns similar profits in the second year and this multiplication goes on.

A ₹1000 SIP done for 10 years will have an average asset value of 2.75 lakhs at the end of 10 years. Where your contribution will be 1.20 lakhs over a period of 10 years & the profit generated will be 1.55 lakhs. Money has got multiplied 2.29 times.

Who should start an SIP?

There is no age limit or income limit to take advantage of this magic wealth creator. You can have a SIP for your just born child for his/her education or wedding expenses. You can start a SIP as soon as your first pay cheque comes to meet your goals like buying a car or a house.

You can start a SIP to accumulate a corpus for your retirement. A SIP even for a vacation, which many investors are now doing.

In Switzerland there are restaurants serving exclusive Indian cuisine because there are so many Indians visiting them. They have seen 60% increase in Indian tourists to their country. India is becoming wealthy and they are enjoying life.

Other benefits of an SIP

Apart from helping you average your investment cost which we had discussed there is one very big advantage in the SIP investment. It is the eighth wonder of the world, the magic of compounding. As the investment period is longer, the profit you earn in the first year earns similar profits in the second year and this multiplication goes on.

A ₹1000 SIP done for 10 years will have an average asset value of 2.75 lakhs at the end of 10 years. Where your contribution will be 1.20 lakhs over a period of 10 years & the profit generated will be 1.55 lakhs. Money has got multiplied 2.29 times.

What is SIP?

SIP is the short form for Systematic Investment Plan. It is a way to invest small amount of savings on a regular basis.

SIP is similar to a bank RD, here it is invested into a Mutual Fund. Where you can pre-fix the amount you want to invest on a regular basis. It can be monthly, Bi-monthly or quarterly.

The difference between Bank RD & Mutual Fund SIP is, in RD, every rupee invested will be growing every day. It has a fixed growth in a fixed period. In an SIP, the investment will not be growing every day. Some days it can be up and some it can be negative. It has no fixed return though it can have a fixed period.

This up & down movement is what makes SIP’s more attractive, because it will give lesser number of units when markets are up and more units when it is down. It will help in averaging the investment so that, when the market goes up to its next higher level, your investment brings higher return.

Let’s look at this with an example:

Investing ₹1000 into an RD account which gives 7% interest will accumulate to ₹12465 after 12 months. The same amount invested in a MF SIP where the assumed return is 7% and the funds NAV goes down to -7.60% in the same year before closing with a 7% profit. The value of the investment will be ₹12765. 300 additional earnings which is 30% more than bank RD.

This is the advantage of an SIP in mutual Fund. And Mutual Funds generally give 15% returns which would mean the same 1000 investment for 12 months would have grown to 13670. A profit of 1670 against only 465 from the banks.

 

Why you should start an SIP?

The first reason is that it brings a discipline to save. And the second, the most important reason is that, it keeps you off mood swings. For example – If you decide to invest an amount every month taking time to check the market and then do it. Most of the time, you obviously get held up in some task and miss the investment. If you have the time, you would want to wait for a better price. Or think about your previous investment which is now in the negative and postpone the current one.

SIP removes all these worries about timing. It helps you have the investment happen automatic & accumulate wealth.

Axis mutual Fund has coined a tag line for SIP, Sleep In Peace. It is really so peaceful was of accumulating wealth.

Mid Caps Melts…

There is a saying, “Sell in May & go away”. Markets proved it right this year. It gave back gains made in April. Mid & Small caps lead the fall. They lost 6.5 to 7%, rising concern among conservative investors to move away from the markets.

While not all portfolios melt the way the indices did. The leaders of the current market are in Chemicals, Electrodes and Construction sectors. Stock holdings in these sectors, preferably the leaders in them stood out strong.

Right stocks at the right time are the need of the day. As Crude oil is reaching for highs, currency depleting & bond yields on the rise, the major concerns that shook the markets. Stocks that had gone up beyond fundamentals took the larger beating.

Adding fuel to the fire was the Karnataka election results which brought more confusion and lots of challenges for the next year’s general elections. Media started giving their share of bad news that, opinion polls show only 47% of our population now willing to give BJP the next term.

Yet there were gems still available in the hay stack. Newspapers reported that, stocks like HEG, Graphite grew strong on their fundamentals. These stocks stood the test of selling pressure.

Stocks that the experts were bullish on like Ashok Leyland, M&M Finance & Escorts – all of them showed more strength on the upside. We have all these in our portfolio which has helped us lose only half of what the markets lost. In April we had 11% gains, double the gains made by the broader indices like the SENSEX.

When markets corrected, we are holding strong with lesser loses. Our portfolio has given back about 3%. Such small and consistent strength over the years have helped us make 200% gains in the last 5 years.

Consistence in holding the top positions for every time periods is an even bigger challenge that fund managers face. This is because of some committed stock not behaving the way it has to or the fund manager holding a view that largely differs from the market.

In this space, we held strong. We were not emotional on our positions. We are not judgemental when entering or exiting a position. Just followed the system and we have consistently outperformed all the other funds in the diversified category.

Last year financial sector had bigger exposure in our portfolio, now we are shedding weight in there. We have been adding a slew of stocks in the consumption and construction sector. With such kind of elite stock picking and commitment to follow the system rules with the highest discipline, we are confident that the outperformance will continue.

I met a couple of top fund managers, whose are now foreseeing a flat year for India. The expectation is that, it will take about 12 to 18 months before bullishness returns to our market. Checking with the patterns in the market now to find if we have to retreat from equities and move to debt or reduce equity exposure. I found that, though there is not much upside from here for the markets. It is not showing weakness as what is perceived by the managers.

It can have another small rally, which can break the 36K on the SENSEX where it will go weak. For this to happen Crude has to retreat, Currency has to get strong. As of this writing both have done that, while it is not over yet. They will rise again, breach the high and then turn down. That is where the markets will manage to reach for a new high.

There is going to be a lull, while before getting there, lets accumulate the gains provided so that, we have a better edge when the tide turns against us.

We are planning to move out of equity exposures in Mutual funds and move capital to Equity savings till the 2019 election fever is over and hop in, into the next leaders at that time. So, markets are going to be tricky and strong players will take the advantage to maximise their gains.

Why Mutual Funds May Trump Real Estate as An Investment Option?

We Indians are believers in creating assets and leaving it behind for the next generations. Saving up and funding assets is a must, for most Indian families. So, what kind of assets do we look at investing in? In a typical Indian family, it will mostly be gold, real estate (either a plot or a house), and in a rapidly growing crop of people, mutual funds and SIPs as well. So, what prompts our choices and how do we make our asset allocation decisions?

We recently shared our views on the pros and cons of gold as an investment option. So, left with the possibilities of real estate and mutual funds, let’s look at which one to choose and what are the pros and cons.

Initial investment

Many people usually save up for years to purchase a real estate asset as it is never cheap. The initial investment in real estate is always high, and at most times, apart from their entire savings, most buyers also end up taking huge loans. These loans can become a liability in the long run, if not planned for properly. Also, life is full of uncertainties – ill health, loss of job for an earning member, new family commitments, etc. can change the equation overnight.

In contrast, investment in mutual funds can start with as little as even INR 500 or 1000. You could choose to begin a Systematic Investment Plan(SIP) with a small amount per month and slowly build it up into a growing investment. In fact, many people have invested in mutual funds quite early on, from the time they have started earning and made enough profits, to invest in real estate. So, while you may not be able to purchase real estate unless you have lots of money to spare, mutual fund investments can start at an early age, and you need not wait to accumulate your savings.

The Process

Investing in real estate is not an easy process; one has to find the right property, at the right price, at the right time, at the right place. At times, you may have to involve brokers or other such third parties and pay out commissions as well. The property papers must be legally verified, and the due process of registration needs to be completed, which is again a bit cumbersome. In short, it is tedious, fraught with painful procedures.

For investing in mutual funds, however, there are no such hassles. Once you decide the amount you wish to invest, you can quickly start an investment account with your bank and transact online. Your relationship manager at the bank or a trusted financial advisor will help you maximise your returns by growing your money while reducing the risks as much as possible.

The Liquidity Factor

Any investment is made with the intention of growing one’s money and also providing a safety net in tough times. Real estate prices do rise slowly and even accounting for market slumps typically your property value would have gone up. The pain point is liquidity.  If you need money immediately to fund an emergency or new goal, selling your property for the right price promptly is difficult. Here again, the process is long- you need to find genuine buyers, and it takes time for the money to come in hand. In contrast, selling mutual funds is more comfortable, and at most times, the money is back in your account within three working days’ time.

While we all seek the safety and security of owning the roof over our head, do consider first building a growing mutual fund portfolio and then using the earnings to build a dream home.

The Sugar swing

Sugar stocks in the market are not always sweet as the product is to taste. Rarely do they gain momentum and play up to give good profits. The reason behind this pessimism is because most of the sugar mills are owned by politicians and almost all of them make use of the bureaucracy for their favour and not bring any benefit to the company.

Towards the end of 2015, Sugar stocks began to show strong upward movement in their price which was followed by their balance sheets showing good numbers. Many a time such number crunching happens and it fades away as it came, like a surprise. While this time it was different, strength in Sugar stocks followed with Paper gaining strength too, it showed that, Sugar rally was not false, there is something really brewing underneath.

Almost all the sugar stocks had similar pattern, the reason was a drought in Maharastra, which is a dominant sugar producer and supported by global prices moving up. Our mills had something more in store. They had finished their crushing season, where their cane procurement came at fairly lower prices. This meant that, mills are going to be the ultimate beneficiaries of all the price increase in Sugar. Sugar price in the retail markets went up from 35 to 57 per kilogram. And all the difference in price was profit to the companies, which was showing up on the balance sheet.

Sugar stocks gave close to 1000% return in the last 2 years. Portfolios that had sugar stocks in them made solid gain in this period. We were one among them; we had exposure all the high volume sugar stocks in our portfolio. We made above 300% gains on our investment in the 2 year period between all the sugar stocks we held with us.

As we do a system based approach to investing, we did not pick up at the bottom of the price stack and did not sell at the top. We entered after good confirmations on the performance, as this sector is prone to deceive investors. Then our exits too were a little late as the price of Sugar took a sudden slide due to various reasons that brought pressure.

End of 2017 was the exit for Sugar stocks and after that the slide in prices have been phenomenal as stock that began at 32 in September 2015, went up to 325 in November 2017, takes a dive to reach below 100 by April 2018. The correction was pretty sharp.

We took the cream of the cake in the price rally, now do not own any sugar stock in our portfolio. The reason for the fall is the high supply of the commodity in the international markets, mills have been forced to export 20% of their produce, so that, and there is lesser damage in the local markets due to high supplies. And up on this, the government has asked mills to give advance payment to farmers for their next crushing season procurement. To arrange for funds, they have to export at lower prices.

The beauty of being a stock investor, we participated in the price rise, made our profits, moved out at the right time and now hold investments in other sectors which are in the up move. No pain of demand supply crunch, no government intervention only profits all the way, while one needs to be smart to get in and out at the right time.